First Things First

First Things First is an early childhood development and health board, committed to helping Arizona children up to the age of five receive the educational, healthcare and family support needed to enable them to arrive at school healthy and ready to succeed.

In 2012, First Things First commissioned the Seidman Research Institute to reassess tobacco tax revenue forecasts up to 2030.  This required:

  • A segmentation of the Arizona smoker population;
  • The formulation of a detailed tax revenue forecast, based upon historical evidence and using a Cohort Survival model; and
  • Indicative sensitivity analyses and confidence intervals for the tax revenue estimates.

First Things First has subsequently commissioned the Seidman Research Institute to update the accuracy of this forecast every two years, including the implementation of a year-long state-wide smoking survey every four years.